This really is committed to those of you who wish to purchase individual stocks. I want to share along with you the methods I have used through the years to pick out stocks that I are finding to become consistently profitable in actual trading. I love to work with a mix of fundamental and technical analysis for selecting stocks. My experience indicates that successful stock selection involves two steps:
1. Select a standard while using the fundamental analysis presented then
2. Confirm that the stock is an uptrend as indicated by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average Line (EMA) being higher than the 100-Day EMA
This two-step process increases the odds that the stock you choose is going to be profitable. It now offers a transmission to sell options which has not performed as you expected if it’s 50-Day EMA drops below its 100-Day EMA. It can be another useful method for selecting stocks for covered call writing, quantity strategy.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis could be the study of financial data such as earnings, dividends and cash flow, which influence the pricing of securities. I use fundamental analysis to help you select securities for future price appreciation. Over the years I have used many options for measuring a company’s growth rate to try to predict its stock’s future price performance. I purchased methods such as earnings growth and return on equity. I are finding why these methods usually are not always reliable or predictive.
Earning Growth
By way of example, corporate net earnings are susceptible to vague bookkeeping practices such as depreciation, cash flow, inventory adjustment and reserves. These are susceptible to interpretation by accountants. Today more than ever before, corporations are under increasing pressure to beat analyst’s earnings estimates which results in more aggressive accounting interpretations. Some corporations take special “one time” write-offs on their own balance sheet for things such as failed mergers or acquisitions, restructuring, unprofitable divisions, failed developing the site, etc. Many times these write-offs usually are not reflected like a drag on earnings growth but show up like a footnote on a financial report. These “one time” write-offs occur with an increase of frequency than you could possibly expect. Many companies which form the Dow Jones Industrial Average have taken such write-offs.
Return on Equity
One other popular indicator, which i’ve found just isn’t necessarily predictive of stock price appreciation, is return on equity (ROE). Conventional wisdom correlates a top return on equity with successful corporate management that’s maximizing shareholder value (the better the ROE the higher).
Which company is much more successful?
Coca-Cola (KO) with a Return on Equity of 46% or
Merrill Lynch (MER) with a Return on Equity of 18%
The answer then is Merrill Lynch by any measure. But Coca-Cola has a greater ROE. How is possible?
Return on equity is calculated by dividing a company’s net income by stockholder’s equity. Coca-Cola can be so over valued what has stockholder’s equity is simply corresponding to about 5% from the total rate from the company. The stockholder equity can be so small that nearly any amount of net income will develop a favorable ROE.
Merrill Lynch alternatively, has stockholder’s equity corresponding to 42% from the rate from the company and requires a much higher net income figure to make a comparable ROE. My point is ROE will not compare apples to apples then is very little good relative indicator in comparing company performance.
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